The trianlge Harmony

This article is published in Business-Standard 23rd March 2009 ,CLICK HERE for the original link, written by Mukul Pal...

A simple triangle can integrate all market theories. Can we spot it?

While writing ‘Theory of Moral Sentiments’ in 1776, Adam Smith would never have thought that after two centuries people will find it oxymoronic to see morals and sentiment in the same phrase. Now, sentiment creates the popular news, lack of morals are ascribed to capitalists and what is left of the father’s work are fragmented theories.

Today, markets and prices are believed to be efficient, inefficient, random and/or ordered. All efficiency experts won’t subscribe to the mathematical order and some believers of inefficiency will call randomness preposterous.

If this was not enough, we even have a few thinkers defining a new model of finance different from economics. Unlike the coherent attempt to find a universal scientific string theory, there is no attempt to look for an integrated market model. A few behaviourologists are trashing efficiency theorists, who in turn call behavioural finance as nothing more than ‘anomalies dredging’.

Meanwhile the other two viz. random and order experts tune their trumpets. It is a cacophony out there, exacerbating the confusion as the historical crisis unfolds.

There is one thing common in all these market specialisations. Implicitly or explicitly they all look at patterns. Behaviourologists are trying to model human emotion. Fundamentalists attempt to model market information. Random experts wait for the recurring odd event.

And, order driven experts call the market model a pattern or fractal. Behaviourologists raise some questions like, “Can the human mind count?” There are of course limitations to the human minds computing ability, the very reason we cannot be called pure rational beings.

This is the same reason why even if there was complete order till infinity, we would find it muddled with randomness. What if the whole debate regarding market type is because even specialists, like rest of us all suffer from biases? What if markets were efficient, inefficient, ordered and random on the same scale but on a different time? What if order or chaos was a factor of time?

If we assume this to be true, we start answering most of the discrepancies between the various theories. Behaviourologists say humans suffer from an extrapolation bias, suggesting that we can’t see the future and we judge the past and present to estimate the future. This is why when we are on the efficient side of the market mountain, we just see efficiency. Simply putting it, we just see positivity when we are on a rising trend.

When markets are inefficient or say falling, we just look down and are unable to see the bottom or impending order. This extrapolation bias also explains why humans under-react or over-react. When we cannot see the top of the market mountain, we cannot judge how far the high is, this is why we under-react. And, when we are on the declining face, we just can’t seem to place the low and we tend to over-react.

Behaviourologists call it momentum and reversal dichotomy as they don’t see the market mountain. We can explain every other behavioural human error of loss aversion, disposition, ambiguity, validity, representativeness, winner’s curse, gambler’s fallacy, heuristics, framing, risk return distortion, over and under confidence, hope and anxiety, optimism and pessimism, if we continue to look at the market as a two dimensional triangular pattern, a face up and down, a low- high - low, cycle. One can see how the errors start getting polarized along the positive and negative slope, order being the positive and flip side of the negative uncertain chaos.

The triangle also explains why behaviourologists see the fundamentalist’s conservatism in earning predictions as the reason positive surprises tend to be followed by further positive surprises. The unanticipated surprise is the hallmark of overconfidence, a positive slope characteristic of the cycle.

The three-phased glitter and stock selections linked to excess volume, recent news and extreme price reaction is another up cycle character. The unending debate of the Fama and French three factor model, one side talking about efficiency and other side challenging it are also on different slopes of the same triangular cycle. Psychologists say fundamentalists select stocks like bonds, “good stocks are stocks of good companies”.

The reason they follow thumb rules and extrapolation is because the ongoing polarity of the up cycles, makes them comfortable and complacent. This is why a high degree of sentiment interest is followed by subsequent low returns. The turn down catches a majority by surprise. This is why psychologists compare option traders to farmers, taking more risk with cash crops after planting sustenance crops and hedging the downside. It is our way to take more risk, inefficient risk when we feel hedged. This is the reason we always misprice options.

The same triangle can explain why buybacks happen more at market lows and cause under-reaction compared to over-reaction, meaning though buy backs end up performing better, they get less attention from investors, investors under-react. Possession and dispossession of dividend also leads to over-reaction and under-reaction. When investors feel they own a dividend, they tend to over-react and take more risk and vice versa.

The behavioural criticism that humans are naive trend watchers is because humans don’t understand cyclicality. It is this same lack of understanding of cyclicality why past performance fails. The holistic pattern can also explain why prices will always keep oscillating between efficiency and inefficiency? Why riskless pair trading done on price will never be riskless? Why long-short funds playing on price are not hedged like LTCM thought and can fail? Why there will always be psychologists writing ‘trading is hazardous to your health’? Why existence of markets is linked with our inability to see the triangle? Why flipping coins can explain randomness, order, efficiency and inefficiency? Why there will always be a conflict and challenge to earn profits in economics? Why capitalism will always be driven by crisis? Why correlations are cyclical like performance? Why behavioural strategies have more tests to pass?

Why saving for tomorrow is a hindsight bias? Why we save when we should invest, and why we invest when we should save? Why Mandelbort and Taleb work together, though one is the father of mathematical order and the other claims to be the philosopher of randomness? Why ordered fractals are very close to chaotic randomness? Why the Nobel Prize winning prospect theory is about ownership and disposition that blinds humans against cyclicality? Why Prechter-Parker’s Financial-Economic dichotomy in social behaviour dynamics is not the new model of finance, but the other face of the mountain? Why demand sensitivity to price can rise and fall? Why we can make money in markets through physics, mathematics, history, psychology and so on? Why access to information and belief in it is triangular?

The two-faced cycle links everything. We are not trying to simplify 200 years of market knowledge. It was always like this, simple. Psychologists are as biased as everybody else, even if they claim to be otherwise.

Time contrarianism is not for everyone, as the preordained harmony kills all the beautiful stories.

The author is CEO, Orpheus CAPITALS, a global alternative research firm.



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Change is Constant By Venkat Mangudi

I got this article on Business gyan CLICK HERE for the original article...


Every organization goes through tremendous change as it grows. In fact, change is what keeps it going. Adapting to change is a great asset to any organization. Take the case of Oracle which started as a database company. Today, it has grown into one stop shop for enterprise applications. With the economic downturn that the US is facing today, it is one of the few organizations with the resilience to weather the recession.

Willingness to change is strength, even if it means plunging part of the company into total confusion for a while. - Jack Welch

As an organization matures, it has to increasingly find opportunities to enhance productivity. This does not mean that it must implement software. Refining strategies and business processes is often at the heart of such productivity improvements. Often times, small and medium organizations become enamored by the lure of Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP) applications. One is led to believe these days, that software is the panacea for all problems plaguing the organization. And this is additionally fueled by reports of organizations making dramatic improvements in productivity or profitability. While such results are not impossible, they cannot be used as yardsticks to determine your needs
A detailed analysis of the organizations strengths and weaknesses is the first step to bring about change. While every management consultant will swear by Strategy Maps, Balanced Scorecard or at least a SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats) analysis, it might boil down to a simple process documentation to identify the pain points. Every small business owner will agree that the biggest challenge facing them is, not surprisingly, a lack of time. Senior Management's time is spent mainly on ensuring that the business is able to keep up with the daily challenges. One has to take time out to moving from a reactive state to a proactive state. Making small changes in the way you do business is going to make a world of difference to its profitability
Let me explain using a simple illustration. A well known manufacturer of Pneumatic products in Tamil Nadu has followed a no questions asked return policy since the inception of the organization two decades ago. The company is now one of the most profitable in the region with very loyal customers. If a customer complains that the product is defective, they just ship them a new one immediately. The customer has an option to send back the defective one at the earliest available opportunity. Why do I think this example is relevant
Typically, a manufacturer sends someone onsite to investigate the cause of the issue and then replaces it. What this means is that there are additional support costs. Not that the cost of replacement goes away, either. The customer will still insist on a replacement because he does not trust that unit anymore. If, on the other hand, you do not have a field support staff at all you save considerable travel and support costs. The customer feels happy that the replacement is sent immediately. The defective product can be added to the QA team that will then dissect the product to identify the fault and eventually build a solution into the manufacturing process
Another company that follows a similar principle is Intuit. They do not have a support staff at all. They offer free support and the software developers themselves attend support calls. This enhances the feedback mechanism and reduces overhead costs for the company that can be passed on to the customer.
Both these companies have proven without a doubt that, traditional ERP or CRM processes are not the only way to realize profitability and productivity gains. It is unique to each organization and takes a time and effort to change.
One method that is used by sales people of enterprise applications is to identify the tactical pain points in the organization. These tactical pains then group into logical strategic issues. These in turn affect a key business objective. Therefore, if one can attempt to resolve the tactical pains one by one, it will lead to fulfillment of a key business objective over time.
Such initiatives involve great amounts of energy from the top management in identifying the need, analyzing the situation, designing a solution and propagating that solution throughout the organization. Change management plays a very important role in such situations, much more that the process changes itself. As Mr. Welch says, willingness to change is strength. Make sure your employees, customers, vendors and partners know that you are attempting to make a change. This will in itself boost the confidence in the organization.
Make sure your employees, customers, vendors and partners know that you are attempting to make a change.
In short, change is something many of us are not ready to welcome in our lives, be it professional or personal. We tend to maintain status quo to a great extent. In the end, change wins. Even if you oppose it and do not give in, you have learnt something new in the process.




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Personal values for a recession

Business Line Article (Link) - Date 16th March 2009


A young professional who considers me an aunt (the agony type) came to me in a state of distress. With a career graph similar to that of other executives who were considered hot until now, he was gnawed by thoughts that he may be unemployed in a few months from now. Having lived through a few economic downturns myself, I counselled him on some valuable traits which could keep him afloat.

Bill Cosby, arguably the best comedian in the US, once said: “Is the glass half empty or half full? It depends on whether you are pouring or drinking.” Many of us are now on the undesirable side of long-term prosperity, either for the first time or definitely after a long time. In these vulnerable times, here are some thoughts on qualities that will help us in a recession.

Follow your heart

Some B-schools, particularly those that are not considered ‘premier’, seem to be victims of a ghastly whisper campaign. Students of these institutions, who have to opt for their specialization, are being warned of hardships if they make a wrong choice. To me, the only wrong choice to make is to be in a field you don’t want to be in.

Sir Ken Robinson, the internationally renowned expert on creativity who has lectured passionately on education, has beseeched parents and students to pursue what they love doing. He says, “We cannot prepare for the future because the future is unknown.”

Frugality and simplicity

The Ireland-born English writer and poet Oliver Goldsmith said, “If frugality were established in the state and if our expenses were laid out to meet needs rather than superfluities of life, there might be fewer wants and even fewer pleasures, but infinitely more happiness.” My maid is a cheerful lady who lives in an 8x8 feet hut with her mother and daughter. She has aspirations, particularly for her child, and is a good bargainer when it comes to her salary. She goes about her work with a smile on her face and a song on her lips. I do hope this thought helps you imbibe and practise the next attribute.

Attitude of gratitude

Almost all holistic systems of healing, including those that claim to be life altering, have one aspect in common. They encourage you to say “thank you”, be it for the music, the food or the blue skies; whatever you take for granted. In simple terms, ‘count your blessings’. Envy on the other hand is defined as the art of counting other people’s blessings and is best kept on a tight leash.

Sense of Humour

Humour will probably seem too trivial in a time of such hardship. But to look at life seriously, one needs a sense of humour. Oscar Wilde, my favourite humourist, said: “It is a curious fact that people are never so trivial as when they take themselves seriously.”

I believe that more than IQ or EQ, HQ or the Happiness Quotient is what we should look at. If on picking up a copy of Reader’s Digest, you go straight to ‘Laughter, the Best Medicine’, ‘Humour in Uniform’ or ‘College Rags’, you score highly on HQ.

Art Buchwald was able to find mirth even in the process of dying and wrote a book on it called Too Soon to Say Goodbye.

grab opportunities

A young entrepreneur called Manjunath used to run an electrical products shop in Chikpet in Bangalore and worked hard to make his business a success. He noticed that it took a long time and many trips to the tea shop to get beverages like tea and coffee supplied to his shop. He also found that all the other businesses in the area faced the same problem. Therefore, he set up a hot beverage delivery service where local businesses could order tea by giving him a ‘missed call’ on his mobile. Alerted by the ‘missed call’, Manjunath sends a delivery man with tea and coffee to the customer’s premises. Today, he has a roaring business popularly called the ‘mobile tea shop’. He has also expanded the menu to include seasonal drinks like buttermilk. This may not be his ‘dream’ enterprise, but it is one that can definitely fund almost any dream of his!

In a story made popular by Abraham Lincoln, it is said that an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to present him with a sentence which should be true and appropriate at all times and in all situations. They presented him with the words: “And this too shall pass away.” Appropriate words those for these tough times for they inspire us to focus on the simple qualities required to keep marching ahead.




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Trust me, I'm the boss

This is the article published in Business Line(16th March 2009)
Source of this article is http://insight.iese.edu/doc.aspx?id=954&ar=20 , article by Pablo Cardona, Wei He

Transformations and adaptations cannot take place within an organization unless the employees trust their leader. Studies have shown that transformational and charismatic leaders are able to build this trust in their followers, and that there is a correlation between leadership and effectiveness.

Conversely, if there is a lack of trust within an organization, employees are more likely to take a defensive stance, which can be detrimental to the organization and its performance. Given the current economic climate and prevalence of downsizing, creating trust is a challenge like never before.

Recognizing the seriousness of this issue, IESE Prof. Pablo Cardona and Wei He look at how trust is initiated, developed and maintained in organizations. Their paper examines the factors that influence trust levels in boss-subordinate relationships, and they suggest some ways of restoring the trust that is so essential for the successful running of any organization.

What Is Trust?
Though trust has been studied across a variety of fields, from history to psychology, the concept remains difficult to pin down in one universal definition. Generally speaking, however, trust can be understood as a relationship that involves a “willingness to be vulnerable to the action of another person, based on positive expectations about the other person’s intentions and behavior,” according to Cardona and He.

Based on this definition, trust becomes not necessarily a choice, nor a specific behavior, but more an attitude toward a particular person who can be the cause of another’s choices. Trust, therefore, is the attitude someone takes based on direct or indirect experience with another person, past interactions or personal observations of how that person behaves toward others.

The Trust Factor(s)
By definition, the boss wields power over the subordinate. However, this does not mean that the worker is a passive receiver of trust. Rather, the worker’s perception of the boss will determine his or her participation in “an interaction of trust.”

What factors encourage trust or distrust between workers and their supervisors?

First, there are the personal factors – characteristics of the boss and the subordinate – that affect the extent of the subordinate’s trust in the boss. These factors include demographic characteristics, personality traits and the professional competence of each.

Second, the boss’s behavior during interactions with subordinates will also determine the boss’s trustworthiness. The five key types of behavior are consistency, integrity, communication, delegation and consideration.

The Matrix Applied to China
Trust is a dynamic relationship, and the interaction process involves both the boss’s personal factors and his or her behavior. Obviously, the personal factors are concerned with the characteristics of both parties involved in the interaction, while the boss’s behavior is concerned with the relationship between boss and subordinate.

Cardona and He provide an illustrated matrix of this dynamic relationship. This matrix reveals a variety of dimensions, including the idea that, at the start of a relationship, favorable personal factors are necessary for trust. However, those factors may become less important as time goes by, because they could be compensated by accumulated past experience.

While their trust matrix is based on Western-based cultural studies, it can just as easily be applied to China. The authors take the four categories of the matrix and match them with four Chinese counterparts: the fast-dying paratroopers, the slow-dying old fellow, expatriates and successful entrepreneurs. Combinations of personal factors and the boss’s behaviors will lead to different perceptions from subordinates: respect only, trust or distrust.

Developing Trust Over Time
The length of a relationship can often indicate the degree of trust between parties, with the number of years between a boss and subordinate thought to have a positive correlation in terms of the level of trust. However, trust does not automatically come with time, but rather with the quality of the interactions between the boss and subordinate.

In general, the subordinate will develop an initial trust or distrust of the boss based on personal factors. Competence and trustworthiness are often based on information received via third parties or on direct observation of how the boss behaves toward others.

When boss and subordinate begin to interact, trust will develop based on the quality of their interactions. The boss’s behavior and subordinate’s response provide a dynamic relationship of mutual influence. Obviously, as the boss is in a position of greater influence, his or her behavior is critical as to how it affects the subordinate’s motivation.

The interaction will continue with the boss’s initial judgment of the subordinate’s capabilities. From that initial interaction, the relationship develops. While a boss might trust a subordinate, it does not mean the subordinate trusts him or her back, though it is essential to have some degree of reciprocity.

Potential Risks
While many bosses express a strong desire to build and maintain trust, not everyone is able to achieve it. This is due to four issues in the boss-subordinate relationship: the nature of the relationship, unclear principles and values, incongruence between words and behavior, and misuse of power and authority.

But if bosses and subordinates are able to interact effectively and achieve the desired trust, the results will be positive all around. Indeed, the level of trust can eventually be such that, according to one American survey, the majority of workers polled said they would trust their boss with babysitting their own children, and 77 percent said they would actually hire their own boss. Now that’s trust!



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Worried about the slowdown? Don't be. Simply follow these six steps to bright future ( article from thesmartmanager)

This article is from THE SMART MANAGER Jan-Feb 09 Issue....Article by Aditya dev sood.

The world has turned upside down and may take time righting itself. Rather tha dreaming about remaking the world, many creative consultancies now have to think about making their next payroll. When growth goes negative, design begins to look like a luxury and budgets are frozen.

Here are a few pointers to help you make the best of a temporary recession:

Create a burn rate optimization tool :
Make a six month survival plan. Establish that you can and will still be in business in six months time by cutting spending and delaying investments. Within that horizon you will have found ways to understand and adapt to new market conditions and flourish again.

Enter the crisis:
It may be a management chiche that in Chinese, crisis = Danger + Opportunity, but it is true nonetheless that in a crisis people change everyday ways of thinking and become open to new options and ways of doing things. The new can more easily become the familiar, more so in a naturally creative company.

Argue from efficiency:
there are two angles. First, out sourcing works because it leads to business efficiencies. Creative consultancies represent a form of outsourcing, though they are not conventionally seen that way. Show your clients exactly how you are a more direct path to innovation than their internal team. Remind them that you have a wider breadth of expertise across a range of industries; that you are in tune with current design trends; that you have therefore accumulated expertise and specialization, while their internal team knows only how to deal with their particular widget. Second, if a client sees design can help them succeed in the market by creating products that their consumers actually prefer. Design is the path out of stagnation toward innovation and new market opportunities.

Thrive through adversity:
creative people know better than most that the mind focuses better as the deadline draws near. Share the fear with you larger team, and allow the group to consider new market needs they can fulfill, ones they might have earlier thought were too infra-dig or beneath their caliber

Build systems and establish processes:
The slack you're enjoying now is actually haven-sent, given how busy you've been over the last decade. Figure out how to improve internal processes so that the company moves like greased lightning when things finally pick up.

Live each day (as if it were your last):
This is hard for any team or person to get right, but most especially for young, lateral-thinking minds, pushing continuously into the future. Even as you pedal harder every hour of your eight hour day, step back and step out during after hours. Spend time with family and take good care of yourself. An economic slowdown is a chance to take a breather, to reconsider your priorities and the creative directions your company should take.



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What is Open BIDDING?

Bidder have to offer a price higher than the two-week formula, which will benefit shareholders. Those who want to exit can do so when the offer is launched while other share holders can choose to stay invested.